Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Set up your own bets on any future event that has a yes/no outcome, and watch people wager anonymously with bitcoin.
Prediction markets serve as quite an innovative method to handicap the likelihood of future events, and the use cases for prediction markets extend outside of gambling on, for instance, election outcomes.
For instance, prediction markets can be put to good use as an alternative form of natural disaster insurance, as Floridians, for example, can put a small wager that their house will be damaged by a hurricane within the next year; if it is, they win at extremely long odds! If they lose, they still have their house! Win-win. Our article ‘what are prediction markets’ gets more into this aspect; read on if you are interested in checking out bitcoin prediction market platforms.
Fairlay offers some of the best sportsbetting odds you can find anywhere, and pretty decent prediction market liquidity.
- Bitcoin Cash
- Crypto Only
Fairlay has one very scarce and valuable attribute in bitcoin prediction markets – betting volume. This is perhaps attributable to its modestly successful sportsbook operation, which perhaps runs over a bit into the different categories.
You will find at fairlay the ever popular crypto category, aka price bets, with hard hitting bets like “will bitcoin fall below $6,000 before August 1” or “will bitcoin top $10,500 before August 1”. There are tons of bets on news, with lines on all the different potential presidential candidates for instance. And just like a betting exchange, fairlay offers p2p bets on all the different sports events.
BetMoose offers an anonymous prediction market to bitcoin betters, with both fixed and paramutuel odds and a rewarding structure for hosting bets.
- Crypto Only
Betmoose is one of our favorites and we are not entirely sure why. Perhaps it is due to our fondness for Mooses, and sympathy with anyone who would name their product after one. In any event,though betmoose does not have the overall liquidity of, say, fairlay, the volume is much more concentrated in the bitcoin/current events categories which is more interesting to us personally. If you want a sportsbook, you don’t need a prediction market, just go to a sportsbook.
Hosts are required to report on the outcome of bets; if this is unfairly done, bettors have 24 hours to report it to the administrators to take action. Betmoose is entirely anonymous, and accepts bitcoin deposits only.
Predictious offers a prediction market platform for the buying and selling of contracts on future events.
- Crypto Only
We are very big fans of how predictious sets up the bets. Questions are simple yes/no, like: will President Trump win the US Presidential Election in 2020?
You can buy a contract of Trump winning for 6.89 mbit (an mbit being .001 btc), or sell it at 1.81 mbit; if you are correct in 2020, you receive 10 mbit. A very intuitive method of betting, and we appreciate the standardization of returns.
Predictious offers markets in sports, politics, economics, entertainment, and science and tech, though the latter three categories have no markets open as of this current moment. Economics is basically just a bunch of predictions on the price of crypto at various future points.
And of course, last but not least is Augur, the decentralized prediction market established on the Ethereum protocol. Augur is an excellent example, in our opinion, of just how insane the ICO market is. The value of Augur as represented by their token REP is currently $400M, down from it’s all time high over $1 billion. Investors, we suppose, are speculating that Augur could eventually be the mechanism to replace centralized exchanges in general, like futures exchanges, betting exchanges, stock exchanges, etc. Definitely interesting, but a bit early to price that in.
Is there a way that the outcomes can be accurately reported if there is no central arbiter? According to the Augur community, this can be done using “oracles”. Augur oracles are meant to be holders of REP, who are compensated for accurately relaying the outcome of a prediction. Seems a bit open to manipulation, but what do we know, we did not launch a $400M prediction market. If you want to invest in Augur, here are the exchanges that trade in REP.